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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Comoros vs Congo

Today 19:00 1 hour
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 91.8%
why
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 4/0 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.3% (n=1151)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.8%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.0%
Draw
28.6%
Away win
20.4%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 1.32 / μ 0.72
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
20.4%
4.91x – risky
Draw
28.6%
3.49x – risky
top Home win
51.0%
1.96x – risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
Comoros · last 6
04 Oct · Friendlies 0-1 L
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-0 W
24 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 3-1 L
08 Jun · Friendlies 0-1 W
31 Mar · FIFA Series 1-0 L
29 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations 0-0 D
Congo · last 6
No settled matches on record.
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.