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UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification

Portugal U19 vs Lithuania U19

Today 19:00 15 hours, 15 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.7%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 6/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.7%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
93.0%
Draw
5.0%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 11 Nov 03:08
scoring fit λ 2.87 / μ 0.05
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 96 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
2.0%
51.06x 42.7% n=96 risky
Draw
5.0%
20.03x 42.7% n=96 risky
top Home win
93.0%
1.07x 42.7% n=96 solid
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Portugal U19 2.0 ppg vs Lithuania U… 1.17 ppg
Portugal U19 · last 6
06 Oct · Friendlies 4-0 W
03 Oct · Friendlies 3-3 D
30 Sep · Friendlies 6-1 W
09 Jun · UEFA U19 Championship… 0-1 W
06 Jun · UEFA U19 Championship… 0-0 D
03 Jun · UEFA U19 Championship… 1-1 D
Lithuania U19 · last 6
02 Oct · Friendlies 2-1 L
30 Sep · Friendlies 3-2 L
06 Jun · Friendlies 3-1 L
04 Jun · Friendlies 0-1 W
31 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship… 0-0 D
21 Nov · UEFA U19 Championship… 2-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.