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UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification

Wales U19 vs Finland U19

Today 21:00 7 hours, 43 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.9%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 7/1 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.9%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
41.6%
Draw
23.6%
Away win
34.8%
calibrated 11 Nov 10:04
scoring fit λ 1.55 / μ 1.40
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 96 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
34.7%
2.88x 42.7% n=96 risky
Draw
23.6%
4.24x 42.7% n=96 risky
top Home win
41.6%
2.4x 42.7% n=96 risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Wales U19 0.17 ppg vs Finland U19 1.17 ppg
Wales U19 · last 6
05 Oct · Friendlies 0-0 D
02 Oct · Friendlies 0-2 L
04 Jul · UEFA U19 Championship 3-0 L
01 Jul · UEFA U19 Championship 0-4 L
28 Jun · UEFA U19 Championship 0-7 L
08 Jun · Friendlies 3-1 L
Finland U19 · last 6
30 Sep · Friendlies 1-2 L
31 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship… 0-1 L
31 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship… 1-1 D
28 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship… 4-0 L
28 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship… 2-1 W
25 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship… 1-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.