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Vushtrria vs Prishtina
Sun 08 Nov 14:00 0 minutes final 0–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.3%
why
• league OK (64.5%, n=31)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 64.5% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 46.9%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 14/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.3%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
18.6%
Draw
12.3%
Away win
69.0%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:38
scoring fit λ 0.82 / μ 2.00
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 185 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
69.0%
|
1.45x | 43.8% n=185 | lean | won |
| Draw |
12.3%
|
8.1x | 43.8% n=185 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
18.6%
|
5.36x | 43.8% n=185 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Vushtrria 0W / 0D / 2L
· momentum Vushtrria 0.5 ppg vs Prishtina 2.17 ppg
Vushtrria · last 6
08 Nov · Superliga
0-1
L
31 Oct · Superliga
3-1
L
18 Oct · Superliga
2-1
L
14 Oct · Superliga
1-0
L
10 Oct · Superliga
1-0
W
19 Sep · Superliga
3-1
L
Prishtina · last 6
08 Nov · Superliga
0-1
W
04 Nov · Superliga
1-2
W
31 Oct · Superliga
0-1
W
25 Oct · Superliga
0-3
L
19 Oct · Superliga
0-1
W
15 Oct · Superliga
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Superliga
Vushtrria 0-1 Prishtina
04 Sep 26 · Superliga
Prishtina 1-0 Vushtrria
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