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Friendlies
Chinese Taipei vs Kyrgyzstan
Fri 13 Nov 14:00 1 day, 13 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.1%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 1/4 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.1%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.9%
Draw
24.4%
Away win
28.7%
calibrated 12 Nov 00:00
scoring fit λ 1.93 / μ 1.49
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
28.7%
|
3.48x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Draw |
24.4%
|
4.1x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| top Home win |
46.9%
|
2.13x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Chinese Tai… 0.0 ppg vs Kyrgyzstan 1.33 ppg
Chinese Taipei · last 6
11 Nov · Friendlies
2-0
L
31 Mar · Asian Cup - Qualifica…
1-3
L
18 Nov · Asian Cup - Qualifica…
3-1
L
14 Oct · Asian Cup - Qualifica…
1-6
L
09 Oct · Asian Cup - Qualifica…
2-0
L
05 Sep · Friendlies
6-0
L
Kyrgyzstan · last 6
04 Oct · Friendlies
3-1
W
28 Sep · Friendlies
5-0
W
09 Jun · Friendlies
0-0
D
06 Jun · Friendlies
0-0
D
28 Mar · Friendlies
2-5
L
25 Mar · Friendlies
0-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.