HOME
Friendlies
United Arab Emirates vs Honduras
Fri 13 Nov 16:10 1 day, 14 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.7%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 3/5 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.7%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.9%
Draw
24.3%
Away win
23.7%
calibrated 12 Nov 00:00
scoring fit λ 1.63 / μ 1.02
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
23.7%
|
4.22x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Draw |
24.3%
|
4.11x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| top Home win |
51.9%
|
1.93x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum United Arab… 1.83 ppg vs Honduras 0.83 ppg
United Arab Emirates · last 6
30 Sep · Gulf Cup of Nations
1-1
D
27 Sep · Gulf Cup of Nations
0-3
W
24 Sep · Gulf Cup of Nations
4-0
W
15 Dec · Arab Cup
3-0
L
12 Dec · Arab Cup
1-1
D
09 Dec · Arab Cup
3-1
W
Honduras · last 6
06 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag…
1-1
D
03 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag…
2-1
L
29 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag…
0-1
W
26 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag…
2-3
L
07 Jun · Friendlies
2-0
L
31 Mar · Friendlies
2-2
D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.