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Friendlies
France U21 vs Italy U21
Fri 13 Nov 19:30 1 day, 18 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.6%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 6/3 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.6%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
49.3%
Draw
23.8%
Away win
26.9%
calibrated 12 Nov 00:00
scoring fit λ 1.94 / μ 1.40
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
26.9%
|
3.71x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Draw |
23.8%
|
4.2x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| top Home win |
49.3%
|
2.03x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum France U21 2.33 ppg vs Italy U21 2.67 ppg
France U21 · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship…
7-1
W
03 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship…
3-2
W
29 Sep · UEFA U21 Championship…
0-2
W
25 Sep · Friendlies
1-0
W
25 Sep · UEFA U21 Championship…
1-1
D
23 Sep · Friendlies
1-1
D
Italy U21 · last 6
05 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship…
6-2
W
01 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship…
0-0
D
08 Jun · Friendlies
1-0
W
31 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship…
0-4
W
26 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship…
4-0
W
18 Nov · UEFA U21 Championship…
1-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.