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Friendlies

England U21 vs Portugal U21

Fri 13 Nov 21:30 1 day, 20 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.3%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 3/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.3%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
48.7%
Draw
23.3%
Away win
28.0%
calibrated 12 Nov 00:00
scoring fit λ 1.83 / μ 1.34
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
28.0%
3.57x 44.3% n=661 risky
Draw
23.3%
4.3x 44.3% n=661 risky
top Home win
48.7%
2.05x 44.3% n=661 risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum England U21 1.83 ppg vs Portugal U21 2.5 ppg
England U21 · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship… 3-1 L
02 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship… 0-0 D
25 Sep · UEFA U21 Championship… 4-2 W
31 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship… 4-1 W
27 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship… 1-1 D
18 Nov · UEFA U21 Championship… 0-4 W
Portugal U21 · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship… 2-0 W
30 Sep · UEFA U21 Championship… 4-0 W
25 Sep · UEFA U21 Championship… 2-1 L
03 Jun · Friendlies 4-0 W
31 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship… 3-0 W
27 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship… 0-4 W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.