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Friendlies
Malta vs Eswatini
Tomorrow 19:30 1 day, 17 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.0%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 6/0 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.0%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
55.3%
Draw
23.5%
Away win
21.2%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:54
scoring fit λ 1.75 / μ 0.99
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
21.2%
|
4.72x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Draw |
23.5%
|
4.25x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| top Home win |
55.3%
|
1.81x | 44.3% n=661 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Malta 2.17 ppg vs Eswatini 0.0 ppg
Malta · last 6
04 Oct · UEFA Nations League
1-0
W
01 Oct · UEFA Nations League
1-1
D
27 Sep · Friendlies
2-0
W
24 Sep · UEFA Nations League
1-2
W
05 Jun · Friendlies
0-2
W
01 Jun · Friendlies
2-1
L
Eswatini · last 6
31 Mar · Africa Cup of Nations…
1-2
L
25 Mar · Africa Cup of Nations…
2-0
L
13 Oct · World Cup - Qualifica…
3-0
L
08 Sep · World Cup - Qualifica…
2-0
L
04 Sep · World Cup - Qualifica…
3-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.