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Friendlies
Vietnam vs Chinese Taipei
Tomorrow 14:00 1 day, 7 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.6%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 13/0 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.6%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
66.2%
Draw
20.5%
Away win
13.2%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:10
scoring fit λ 2.34 / μ 1.00
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
13.3%
|
7.54x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Draw |
20.5%
|
4.88x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| top Home win |
66.2%
|
1.51x | 44.3% n=661 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Vietnam 2.17 ppg vs Chinese Tai… 0.0 ppg
Vietnam · last 6
29 Sep · FIFA Asean Cup
2-0
L
26 Sep · FIFA Asean Cup
1-0
W
26 Aug · AFF Championship
2-2
D
22 Aug · AFF Championship
0-2
W
19 Aug · AFF Championship
2-0
W
16 Aug · AFF Championship
0-2
W
Chinese Taipei · last 6
31 Mar · Asian Cup - Qualifica…
1-3
L
18 Nov · Asian Cup - Qualifica…
3-1
L
14 Oct · Asian Cup - Qualifica…
1-6
L
09 Oct · Asian Cup - Qualifica…
2-0
L
05 Sep · Friendlies
6-0
L
10 Jun · Asian Cup - Qualifica…
3-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.