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Friendlies

England U18 vs Netherlands U18

Tomorrow 16:00 1 day, 5 hours
Ne
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.3%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 0/0 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.3%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
49.1%
Draw
23.6%
Away win
27.3%
calibrated 10 Nov 09:55
scoring fit λ 1.74 / μ 1.24
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
27.3%
3.67x 44.3% n=661 risky
Draw
23.6%
4.24x 44.3% n=661 risky
top Home win
49.1%
2.04x 44.3% n=661 risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
England U18 · last 6
13 Jun · Friendlies 0-0 D
Netherlands U18 · last 6
No settled matches on record.
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.