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Cup
Podbrezová vs Zlaté Moravce
Tomorrow 17:00 1 day, 6 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.9%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 22/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.9%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
38.5%
Draw
16.2%
Away win
45.3%
calibrated 10 Nov 09:54
scoring fit λ 1.64 / μ 1.80
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
45.3%
|
2.21x | 43.2% n=243 | risky |
| Draw |
16.2%
|
6.17x | 43.2% n=243 | risky |
| Home win |
38.5%
|
2.6x | 43.2% n=243 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Podbrezová 1.5 ppg vs Zlaté Morav… 0.33 ppg
Podbrezová · last 6
08 Nov · Super Liga
4-1
W
31 Oct · Super Liga
1-2
L
24 Oct · Super Liga
1-4
W
18 Oct · Super Liga
1-0
L
11 Oct · Super Liga
1-3
L
29 Sep · Cup
0-2
W
Zlaté Moravce · last 6
07 Nov · 2. liga
0-1
L
31 Oct · 2. liga
0-0
D
25 Oct · 2. liga
3-0
L
21 Oct · Cup
0-0
D
17 Oct · 2. liga
2-1
L
12 Oct · 2. liga
1-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.