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Copa Fares Lopes

Vila Real vs Ceará II

Today 00:00 19 hours, 30 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 90.9%
why
• league NEW (100.0%, n=4)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 100.0% of 4 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 51.0%)
draws 22.9% of matches
team history 5/0 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
90.9%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
43.2%
Draw
27.4%
Away win
29.4%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 1.34 / μ 1.05
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
29.4%
3.4x – risky
Draw
27.4%
3.66x – risky
top Home win
43.2%
2.31x – risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Vila Real 2.2 ppg vs Ceará II 1.0 ppg
Vila Real · last 6
02 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes 0-2 W
27 Sep · Cearense - 3 1-1 D
19 Sep · Cearense - 3 1-0 W
12 Sep · Cearense - 3 1-1 D
22 Aug · Cearense - 3 3-2 W
Ceará II · last 6
29 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes 1-2 L
17 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes 2-1 W
05 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes 2-0 L
01 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes 0-1 W
24 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes 3-1 L
16 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes 2-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.