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Cup
El Mokawloon vs Itesalat
Tomorrow 17:00 1 day, 12 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 92.7%
why
• league NEW (85.7%, n=7)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 85.7% of 7 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 48.7%)
draws 13.3% of matches
team history 13/0 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.8% (n=1085)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.7%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
36.1%
Draw
29.1%
Away win
34.8%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 1.11 / μ 1.09
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
34.8%
|
2.87x | 43.2% n=243 | risky |
| Draw |
29.1%
|
3.44x | 43.2% n=243 | risky |
| top Home win |
36.1%
|
2.77x | 43.2% n=243 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
El Mokawloon · last 6
02 Nov · League Cup
1-0
L
28 Oct · Premier League
2-1
L
19 Oct · Premier League
0-3
W
12 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
15 Sep · Premier League
0-2
W
09 Sep · Premier League
1-1
D
Itesalat · last 6
No settled matches on record.
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.