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Chattanooga vs Los Angeles II

Sun 08 Nov 01:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.6%
why
• league WATCH (50.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
watch · 50.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 23.7%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 23/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.6%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
54.3%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
22.4%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:18
scoring fit λ 2.12 / μ 1.33
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 437 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
22.4%
4.46x 49.7% n=437 risky lost
Draw
23.3%
4.3x 49.7% n=437 risky lost
top Home win
54.3%
1.84x 49.7% n=437 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Chattanooga 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Chattanooga 3.0 ppg vs Los Angeles… 1.67 ppg
Chattanooga · last 6
09 Nov · MLS Next Pro 1-0 W
31 Oct · MLS Next Pro 3-2 W
25 Oct · MLS Next Pro 3-1 W
18 Oct · MLS Next Pro 3-1 W
20 Sep · MLS Next Pro 0-1 W
13 Sep · MLS Next Pro 4-1 W
Los Angeles II · last 6
09 Nov · MLS Next Pro 1-0 L
31 Oct · MLS Next Pro 0-1 W
26 Oct · MLS Next Pro 0-1 W
19 Oct · MLS Next Pro 2-2 D
20 Sep · MLS Next Pro 3-2 L
14 Sep · MLS Next Pro 1-5 W
Head-to-head last 5
09 Nov 26 · MLS Next Pro Chattanooga 1-0 Los Angeles II