HOME
USL League One
Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison
Today 02:00 0 minutes final 2–1 · in progress
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 78.2%
book 1.35x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league OK (77.8%, n=18)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
• priced 1.35x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
ok · 77.8% of 18 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 54.8%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 30/30 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=936)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.1% hit (n=470)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
78.2%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (70.4%)
@ 09 Nov 00:19 · 1.53x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 86.8%
Either team wins
solid (78.2%)
@ 09 Nov 00:19 · 1.35x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 86.8%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
48.6%
Draw
21.8%
Away win
29.6%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:19
scoring fit λ 1.88 / μ 1.42
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 279 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
29.6%
|
3.37x | 49.1% n=279 | risky | – |
| Draw |
21.7%
|
4.6x | 49.1% n=279 | risky | – |
| top Home win |
48.6%
|
2.06x | 49.1% n=279 | risky | – |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — Charlotte Ind… 2W / 5D / 4L
· momentum Charlotte I… 2.17 ppg vs Forward Mad… 1.33 ppg
Charlotte Independence · last 6
02 Nov · USL League One
5-1
W
24 Oct · USL League One
4-1
L
18 Oct · USL League One
0-3
W
11 Oct · USL League One
3-0
W
04 Oct · USL League One
2-3
W
26 Sep · USL League One
1-1
D
Forward Madison · last 6
30 Oct · USL League One
2-1
W
25 Oct · USL League One
0-0
D
18 Oct · USL League One
2-0
W
11 Oct · USL League One
3-2
L
04 Oct · USL League One
0-0
D
27 Sep · USL League One
0-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
23 Aug 26 · USL League One
Forward Madison 1-1 Charlotte Indep…
24 May 26 · USL League One
Charlotte Indep… 3-1 Forward Madison
17 Jul 25 · USL League One
Forward Madison 1-1 Charlotte Indep…
12 Apr 25 · USL League One
Charlotte Indep… 1-1 Forward Madison
03 Nov 24 · USL League One
Forward Madison 2-0 Charlotte Indep…