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Liga de Expansión MX

Piratas vs Cancún

Today 03:00 0 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.4%
why
• league PROVEN (82.4%, n=34)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 82.4% of 34 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 66.5%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 16/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.4%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
62.7%
Draw
21.2%
Away win
16.1%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:52
scoring fit λ 2.00 / μ 0.91
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 259 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
16.1%
6.22x 47.5% n=259 risky
Draw
21.2%
4.72x 47.5% n=259 risky
top Home win
62.7%
1.59x 47.5% n=259 lean
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Piratas 0W / 1D / 1L · momentum Piratas 1.83 ppg vs Cancún 2.0 ppg
Piratas · last 6
06 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX 1-1 D
01 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX 1-1 D
25 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX 0-5 W
18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX 3-0 W
11 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX 4-2 L
04 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX 4-0 W
Cancún · last 6
06 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX 1-1 D
01 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX 2-0 W
24 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX 0-4 W
18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX 1-1 D
11 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX 2-2 D
04 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX 1-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Liga de Expansión MX Cancún 1-1 Piratas
23 Aug 26 · Liga de Expansión MX Piratas 0-1 Cancún