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Cup
Wadi Degla vs Kahraba Ismailia
Today 14:30 11 hours, 6 minutesKa
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.1%
why
• league NEW (85.7%, n=7)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 85.7% of 7 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 48.7%)
draws 13.3% of matches
team history 15/3 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3022)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.1%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
50.9%
Draw
27.7%
Away win
21.4%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 1.69 / μ 1.04
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
21.4%
|
4.66x | 43.2% n=243 | risky |
| Draw |
27.7%
|
3.62x | 43.2% n=243 | risky |
| top Home win |
50.9%
|
1.96x | 43.2% n=243 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Wadi Degla 1W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Wadi Degla 0.83 ppg vs Kahraba Ism… 1.5 ppg
Wadi Degla · last 6
02 Nov · League Cup
1-0
W
29 Oct · Premier League
2-1
L
20 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
13 Oct · Premier League
2-2
D
15 Sep · Premier League
0-2
L
09 Sep · Premier League
2-1
L
Kahraba Ismailia · last 6
29 May · Premier League
1-1
D
23 May · Premier League
2-2
D
18 May · Premier League
0-2
L
12 May · Premier League
0-1
W
08 May · Premier League
0-0
D
04 May · Premier League
1-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
04 May 26 · Premier League
Wadi Degla 1-2 Kahraba Ismailia
14 Sep 25 · Premier League
Kahraba Ismailia 1-4 Wadi Degla