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ZED FC vs Samanod

Today 17:00 13 hours, 36 minutes
Sa
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 3.5 goals · 72.2%
book 1.58x · longshot 1.55x+
why
• league NEW (85.7%, n=7)
• type ledger 72% (n=341)
• priced 1.58x - 1.55x+ legs hit ~53% (60d)
• league has no graded history yet (needs n>=8)
league track
new · 85.7% of 7 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 48.7%)
draws 13.3% of matches
team history 18/0 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 71.8% hit (n=341, 90d ledger)
measured band: 69.5% (n=95)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3022)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
72.2%
Under 3.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals solid (72.2%)
@ 09 Nov 02:54 · 1.58x
board also had Either team wins 87.8%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
84.0%
Draw
12.2%
Away win
3.8%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 1.96 / μ 0.05
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
3.8%
26.03x 43.2% n=243 risky
Draw
12.2%
8.2x 43.2% n=243 risky
top Home win
84.0%
1.19x 43.2% n=243 solid
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
ZED FC · last 6
04 Dec · League Cup 0-0 D
31 Oct · Premier League 2-1 L
24 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup 1-0 L
20 Oct · Premier League 3-2 W
17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup 1-1 D
12 Oct · Premier League 1-1 D
Samanod · last 6
No settled matches on record.
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.