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CAF U23 Cup of Nations
South Sudan U23 vs Senegal U23
Today 18:00 14 hours, 36 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 95.0%
why
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
team history 0/0 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2515)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
95.0%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
43.1%
Draw
26.0%
Away win
30.9%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 1.44 / μ 1.18
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
30.9%
|
3.24x | – | risky |
| Draw |
26.0%
|
3.85x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
43.1%
|
2.32x | – | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
South Sudan U23 · last 6
No settled matches on record.
Senegal U23 · last 6
No settled matches on record.
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.