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FA Cup

Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted

Today 21:30 17 hours, 40 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 68.9%
book 1.45x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league NEW (100.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 80% (n=1979)
• priced 1.45x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• 1X in a 10-20pp mismatch is the draw dead zone (90d: 75.9% hit, -25.6% ROI)
league track
new · 100.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 34.2%)
draws 13.3% of matches
team history 5/7 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1979, 90d ledger)
measured band: 75.2% (n=149)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
68.9%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw lean (68.9%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53 · 1.45x
board also had Over 1.5 goals 81.7%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
44.6%
Draw
24.3%
Away win
31.1%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.82 / μ 1.50
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 335 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
31.1%
3.21x 39.7% n=335 risky
Draw
24.3%
4.12x 39.7% n=335 risky
top Home win
44.6%
2.24x 39.7% n=335 risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Plymouth Pa… 1.5 ppg vs Berkhamsted 2.5 ppg
Plymouth Parkway · last 6
17 Oct · FA Cup 2-0 W
03 Oct · FA Cup 2-1 W
26 Sep · FA Trophy 0-3 L
19 Sep · FA Cup 0-2 W
11 Jul · Friendlies Clubs 1-4 L
13 Dec · FA Trophy 3-0 L
Berkhamsted · last 6
24 Oct · FA Trophy 1-2 L
17 Oct · FA Cup 1-2 W
03 Oct · FA Cup 0-2 W
26 Sep · FA Trophy 3-1 W
19 Sep · FA Cup 4-1 W
05 Sep · FA Cup 2-3 W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.