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CONCACAF Nations League

Jamaica vs Mexico

Today 23:00 18 hours, 22 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 91.8%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 11.7% of matches
team history 7/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
20.9%
Draw
22.6%
Away win
56.5%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 0.79 / μ 1.53
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 06 Nov · None matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
top Away win
56.5%
1.77x – lean
Draw
22.6%
4.43x – risky
Home win
20.9%
4.78x – risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Jamaica 1.33 ppg vs Mexico 0.83 ppg
Jamaica · last 6
06 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 1-1 D
03 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 0-2 W
29 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 0-1 L
26 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 3-2 W
06 Jun · Friendlies 1-1 D
30 May · Friendlies 0-3 L
Mexico · last 6
07 Oct · Friendlies 0-2 L
04 Oct · Friendlies 3-0 L
30 Sep · Friendlies 1-1 D
27 Sep · Friendlies 1-1 D
06 Jul · World Cup 2-3 L
01 Jul · World Cup 2-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.