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Primera Premier
Jaguares de Chiapas vs H2o Purepechas
Sun 08 Nov 02:00 0 minutes final 1–1 · 1 won · 0 lostH2
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 91.9%
why
• league OK (80.0%, n=15)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
ok · 80.0% of 15 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 54.8%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 10/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.8% (n=163)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
91.9%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (91.9%)
@ 08 Nov 00:55
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
67.5%
Draw
24.4%
Away win
8.1%
calibrated 08 Nov 00:55
scoring fit λ 1.82 / μ 0.52
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
8.1%
|
12.29x | – | risky | lost |
| Draw |
24.4%
|
4.1x | – | risky | won |
| top Home win |
67.5%
|
1.48x | – | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Jaguares de C… 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Jaguares de… 1.67 ppg vs H2o Purepec… 1.17 ppg
Jaguares de Chiapas · last 6
08 Nov · Primera Premier
1-1
D
01 Nov · Primera Premier
2-2
D
25 Oct · Primera Premier
2-2
D
17 Oct · Primera Premier
0-0
D
11 Oct · Primera Premier
1-0
W
06 Oct · Primera Premier
0-1
W
H2o Purepechas · last 6
08 Nov · Primera Premier
1-1
D
01 Nov · Primera Premier
2-1
W
25 Oct · Primera Premier
1-0
L
11 Oct · Primera Premier
2-0
W
04 Oct · Primera Premier
1-0
L
27 Sep · Primera Premier
0-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Primera Premier
Jaguares de Chi… 1-1 H2o Purepechas