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Avenir Beggen vs UNA Strassen

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 3–0 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 92.1%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 9.5%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 1/20 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.1% (n=1139)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.1%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
3.2%
Draw
9.4%
Away win
87.4%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:29
scoring fit λ 0.05 / μ 2.21
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
87.4%
1.14x 43.2% n=243 solid lost
Draw
9.4%
10.6x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
Home win
3.2%
31.57x 43.2% n=243 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Avenir Beggen 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Avenir Begg… 3.0 ppg vs UNA Strassen 2.17 ppg
Avenir Beggen · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 3-0 W
UNA Strassen · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 3-0 L
31 Oct · National Division 2-1 W
25 Oct · National Division 0-2 W
18 Oct · National Division 1-1 D
11 Oct · National Division 0-2 W
16 Sep · National Division 2-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Cup Avenir Beggen 3-0 UNA Strassen