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Berdenia Berbourg vs AS Jeunesse Esch

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 3–3 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.4%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 9.5%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 1/16 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3028)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.4%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
49.7%
Draw
22.0%
Away win
28.3%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:29
scoring fit λ 1.95 / μ 1.43
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
28.3%
3.53x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
Draw
22.0%
4.55x 43.2% n=243 risky won
top Home win
49.7%
2.01x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Berdenia Berb… 0W / 1D / 0L · momentum Berdenia Be… 1.0 ppg vs AS Jeunesse… 1.33 ppg
Berdenia Berbourg · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 3-3 D
AS Jeunesse Esch · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 3-3 D
31 Oct · National Division 0-3 L
25 Oct · National Division 0-3 W
18 Oct · National Division 1-0 W
11 Oct · National Division 4-1 L
16 Sep · National Division 1-1 D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Cup Berdenia Berbou… 3-3 AS Jeunesse Esch