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Atert Bissen vs FC Differdange 03

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 1–3 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Draw or Away · 69.7%
book 1.48x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• priced 1.48x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• league has no graded history yet (needs n>=8)
league track
new · 50.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 9.5%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 21/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.9% (n=156)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3031)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
69.7%
Draw or Away
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away lean (69.7%)
@ 08 Nov 17:29 · 1.48x
board also had Over 1.5 goals 82.6% pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
30.3%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
44.0%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:29
scoring fit λ 1.56 / μ 1.89
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
44.0%
2.27x 43.2% n=243 risky won
Draw
25.7%
3.9x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
Home win
30.3%
3.3x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Atert Bissen 1W / 0D / 2L · momentum Atert Bissen 2.17 ppg vs FC Differda… 3.0 ppg
Atert Bissen · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 1-3 L
31 Oct · National Division 5-1 W
25 Oct · National Division 1-2 W
18 Oct · National Division 5-1 W
11 Oct · National Division 2-2 D
16 Sep · National Division 4-2 W
FC Differdange 03 · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 1-3 W
31 Oct · National Division 0-3 W
25 Oct · National Division 2-1 W
18 Oct · National Division 3-5 W
11 Oct · National Division 6-0 W
16 Sep · National Division 3-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Cup Atert Bissen 1-3 FC Differdange …
23 May 26 · National Division Atert Bissen 1-0 FC Differdange …
03 Aug 25 · National Division FC Differdange … 1-0 Atert Bissen