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Cup
Daring Echternach vs Grevenmacher
Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 3–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.1%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 9.5%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 1/1 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3031)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.1%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.3%
Draw
21.8%
Away win
31.9%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:29
scoring fit λ 1.95 / μ 1.59
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
31.9%
|
3.13x | 43.2% n=243 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
21.8%
|
4.59x | 43.2% n=243 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
46.3%
|
2.16x | 43.2% n=243 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Daring Echter… 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Daring Echt… 3.0 ppg vs Grevenmacher 0.0 ppg
Daring Echternach · last 6
08 Nov · Cup
3-2
W
Grevenmacher · last 6
08 Nov · Cup
3-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Cup
Daring Echterna… 3-2 Grevenmacher