Ma
HOME
Cup
Mamer vs US Mondorf-les-bains
Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 1–3 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.5%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 9.5%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 6/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.5%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
9.0%
Draw
18.4%
Away win
72.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:29
scoring fit λ 0.77 / μ 2.41
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
72.5%
|
1.38x | 43.2% n=243 | solid | won |
| Draw |
18.4%
|
5.42x | 43.2% n=243 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
9.0%
|
11.08x | 43.2% n=243 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Mamer 0W / 0D / 3L
· momentum Mamer 0.5 ppg vs US Mondorf-… 2.0 ppg
Mamer · last 6
08 Nov · Cup
1-3
L
19 Jul · Friendlies Clubs
1-2
L
04 Jul · Friendlies Clubs
8-0
L
31 May · National Division
0-0
D
23 May · National Division
0-0
D
17 May · National Division
1-1
D
US Mondorf-les-bains · last 6
08 Nov · Cup
1-3
W
31 Oct · National Division
2-1
W
25 Oct · National Division
6-0
L
18 Oct · National Division
4-1
W
11 Oct · National Division
1-2
W
16 Sep · National Division
2-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Cup
Mamer 1-3 US Mondorf-les-…
28 Feb 26 · National Division
Mamer 0-1 US Mondorf-les-…
31 Aug 25 · National Division
US Mondorf-les-… 3-1 Mamer