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Mondercange vs F91 Dudelange

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 3–2 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 3.5 goals · 64.4%
book 1.57x · longshot 1.55x+
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 72% (n=342)
• priced 1.57x - 1.55x+ legs hit ~53% (60d)
• league has no graded history yet (needs n>=8)
league track
new · 50.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 9.5%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 1/18 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 71.6% hit (n=342, 90d ledger)
measured band: 65.9% (n=123)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
64.4%
Under 3.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals lean (64.4%)
@ 08 Nov 17:29 · 1.57x
board also had Draw or Away 92.4% pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
7.6%
Draw
16.6%
Away win
75.7%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:29
scoring fit λ 0.54 / μ 2.21
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
75.7%
1.32x 43.2% n=243 solid lost
Draw
16.6%
6.02x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
Home win
7.6%
13.1x 43.2% n=243 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Mondercange 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Mondercange 3.0 ppg vs F91 Dudelan… 1.5 ppg
Mondercange · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 3-2 W
F91 Dudelange · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 3-2 L
31 Oct · National Division 3-0 W
25 Oct · National Division 2-1 L
18 Oct · National Division 5-0 W
11 Oct · National Division 1-3 W
16 Sep · National Division 2-4 L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Cup Mondercange 3-2 F91 Dudelange