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US Rumelange vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 2–3 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 92.5%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 9.5%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 14/18 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3031)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.5%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
62.7%
Draw
16.5%
Away win
20.8%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:29
scoring fit λ 2.35 / μ 1.27
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
20.8%
4.82x 43.2% n=243 risky won
Draw
16.5%
6.05x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
top Home win
62.7%
1.59x 43.2% n=243 lean lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — US Rumelange 1W / 0D / 1L · momentum US Rumelange 0.83 ppg vs Racing FC U… 1.5 ppg
US Rumelange · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 2-3 L
31 Oct · National Division 2-1 W
25 Oct · National Division 3-3 D
18 Oct · National Division 3-3 D
11 Oct · National Division 1-2 L
16 Sep · National Division 2-0 L
Racing FC Union Luxembourg · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 2-3 W
31 Oct · National Division 2-1 L
25 Oct · National Division 6-0 W
18 Oct · National Division 1-1 D
11 Oct · National Division 2-2 D
16 Sep · National Division 0-0 D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Cup US Rumelange 2-3 Racing FC Union…
31 Oct 26 · National Division US Rumelange 2-1 Racing FC Union…