HOME
Cup

Union Titus Pétange vs URB

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 3–1 · settled
UR
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 90.9%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 9.5%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 3/1 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3028)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
90.9%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
35.5%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
40.6%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:29
scoring fit λ 1.48 / μ 1.59
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
40.6%
2.46x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
Draw
23.9%
4.18x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
Home win
35.5%
2.82x 43.2% n=243 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Union Titus P… 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Union Titus… 1.17 ppg vs URB 0.0 ppg
Union Titus Pétange · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 3-1 W
23 May · National Division 2-3 L
17 May · National Division 1-0 L
10 May · National Division 3-0 W
03 May · National Division 1-1 D
26 Apr · National Division 0-1 L
URB · last 6
08 Nov · Cup 3-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Cup Union Titus Pét… 3-1 URB