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Cup
Victoria Rosport vs UN Kaerjeng 97
Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 1–3 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.1%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 9.5%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 18/15 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3031)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.1%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.6%
Draw
19.4%
Away win
34.0%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:29
scoring fit λ 1.86 / μ 1.56
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
34.0%
|
2.94x | 43.2% n=243 | risky | won |
| Draw |
19.4%
|
5.15x | 43.2% n=243 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
46.6%
|
2.15x | 43.2% n=243 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 8 meetings — Victoria Rosp… 2W / 1D / 5L
· momentum Victoria Ro… 1.17 ppg vs UN Kaerjeng… 2.0 ppg
Victoria Rosport · last 6
08 Nov · Cup
1-3
L
31 Oct · National Division
3-0
L
25 Oct · National Division
4-1
W
18 Oct · National Division
3-5
L
11 Oct · National Division
0-3
W
16 Sep · National Division
1-1
D
UN Kaerjeng 97 · last 6
08 Nov · Cup
1-3
W
31 Oct · National Division
2-1
L
25 Oct · National Division
1-2
L
17 Oct · National Division
1-2
W
11 Oct · National Division
4-1
W
16 Sep · National Division
2-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Cup
Victoria Rosport 1-3 UN Kaerjeng 97
11 Sep 26 · National Division
UN Kaerjeng 97 5-0 Victoria Rosport
01 Mar 26 · National Division
UN Kaerjeng 97 2-0 Victoria Rosport
31 Aug 25 · National Division
Victoria Rosport 2-1 UN Kaerjeng 97
21 Apr 24 · National Division
UN Kaerjeng 97 0-0 Victoria Rosport