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Premier League
Nouakchott King's vs Nouadhibou
Sun 08 Nov 19:00 0 minutes final 1–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 93.9%
why
• league OK (68.2%, n=22)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
league track
ok · 68.2% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 47.3%)
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 7/10 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 94.1% (n=34)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
93.9%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away
solid (93.9%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
6.1%
Draw
29.1%
Away win
64.8%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 0.72 / μ 2.13
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
64.8%
|
1.54x | 67.7% n=31 | lean | lost |
| Draw |
29.1%
|
3.44x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | won |
| Home win |
6.1%
|
16.46x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Nouakchott Ki… 2W / 4D / 7L
· momentum Nouakchott … 1.0 ppg vs Nouadhibou 1.83 ppg
Nouakchott King's · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
1-1
D
02 Nov · Premier League
2-2
D
29 Oct · Premier League
2-4
L
17 Oct · Premier League
2-0
L
11 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
23 May · Premier League
2-0
W
Nouadhibou · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
1-1
D
02 Nov · Premier League
1-2
W
29 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
25 Oct · CAF Champions League
2-0
W
17 Oct · CAF Champions League
2-1
L
10 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Premier League
Nouakchott King… 1-1 Nouadhibou
17 May 26 · Premier League
Nouakchott King… 3-2 Nouadhibou
06 Jan 26 · Premier League
Nouadhibou 1-1 Nouakchott King…
13 Apr 25 · Premier League
Nouakchott King… 1-1 Nouadhibou
06 Dec 24 · Premier League
Nouadhibou 1-0 Nouakchott King…