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Cup
El Geish vs Asyut Petroleum
Sun 08 Nov 20:00 0 minutes final 0–1 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 75.3%
book 1.34x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league NEW (85.7%, n=7)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• priced 1.34x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• league has no graded history yet (needs n>=8)
league track
new · 85.7% of 7 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 48.7%)
draws 13.3% of matches
team history 14/10 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.7% (n=576)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
75.3%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (75.3%)
@ 08 Nov 17:29 · 1.34x
board also had Over 0.5 goals 86.3%
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
44.9%
Draw
30.4%
Away win
24.7%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:29
scoring fit λ 1.27 / μ 0.87
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
24.7%
|
4.05x | 43.2% n=243 | risky | won |
| Draw |
30.4%
|
3.29x | 43.2% n=243 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
44.9%
|
2.23x | 43.2% n=243 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — El Geish 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum El Geish 0.33 ppg vs Asyut Petro… 1.33 ppg
El Geish · last 6
04 Dec · League Cup
0-0
D
08 Nov · Cup
0-1
L
30 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
20 Oct · Premier League
1-4
L
13 Oct · Premier League
3-0
L
14 Sep · Premier League
0-1
L
Asyut Petroleum · last 6
08 Nov · Cup
0-1
W
03 Nov · League Cup
0-0
D
30 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
20 Oct · Premier League
0-1
L
13 Oct · Premier League
1-2
W
15 Sep · Premier League
0-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Cup
El Geish 0-1 Asyut Petroleum