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Torneo Federal A
Douglas Haig vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Sun 08 Nov 20:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · 1 won · 0 lostGi
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 79.1%
why
• league PROVEN (82.1%, n=28)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
league track
proven · 82.1% of 28 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 64.4%)
draws 35.0% of matches
team history 23/25 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.7% (n=576)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
79.1%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (79.1%)
@ 08 Nov 00:48
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
50.4%
Draw
28.6%
Away win
20.9%
calibrated 08 Nov 00:48
scoring fit λ 1.40 / μ 0.80
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 521 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
20.9%
|
4.78x | 47.8% n=521 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
28.6%
|
3.49x | 47.8% n=521 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
50.4%
|
1.98x | 47.8% n=521 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 7 meetings — Douglas Haig 3W / 2D / 2L
· momentum Douglas Haig 1.83 ppg vs Gimnasia Ch… 1.0 ppg
Douglas Haig · last 6
08 Nov · Torneo Federal A
1-0
W
01 Nov · Torneo Federal A
3-0
W
25 Oct · Torneo Federal A
1-0
L
18 Oct · Torneo Federal A
1-0
W
11 Oct · Torneo Federal A
0-0
D
20 Sep · Torneo Federal A
0-0
D
Gimnasia Chivilcoy · last 6
08 Nov · Torneo Federal A
1-0
L
01 Nov · Torneo Federal A
3-0
W
25 Oct · Torneo Federal A
0-0
D
18 Oct · Torneo Federal A
3-3
D
10 Oct · Torneo Federal A
1-1
D
04 Oct · Torneo Federal A
1-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Torneo Federal A
Douglas Haig 1-0 Gimnasia Chivil…
20 Sep 26 · Torneo Federal A
Douglas Haig 0-0 Gimnasia Chivil…
23 May 26 · Torneo Federal A
Gimnasia Chivil… 2-0 Douglas Haig
22 Mar 26 · Torneo Federal A
Douglas Haig 2-1 Gimnasia Chivil…
27 Jul 25 · Torneo Federal A
Gimnasia Chivil… 1-0 Douglas Haig