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NWSL Women
Washington Spirit Women vs Portland Thorns Women
Sun 08 Nov 22:00 0 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 82.7%
book 1.33x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (82.6%, n=23)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
• priced 1.33x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 82.6% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 62.9%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 22/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.5% (n=677)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
82.7%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (82.7%)
@ 08 Nov 17:27 · 1.33x
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
49.4%
Draw
17.3%
Away win
33.4%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 1.58 / μ 1.22
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 245 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
33.4%
|
3.0x | 54.7% n=245 | risky |
| Draw |
17.3%
|
5.79x | 54.7% n=245 | risky |
| top Home win |
49.4%
|
2.02x | 54.7% n=245 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — Washington Sp… 3W / 2D / 6L
· momentum Washington … 2.0 ppg vs Portland Th… 1.83 ppg
Washington Spirit Women · last 6
02 Nov · NWSL Women
2-0
W
25 Oct · NWSL Women
2-1
L
17 Oct · NWSL Women
1-0
W
05 Oct · NWSL Women
2-3
W
27 Sep · NWSL Women
0-1
L
20 Sep · NWSL Women
0-3
W
Portland Thorns Women · last 6
02 Nov · NWSL Women
0-2
W
24 Oct · NWSL Women
1-0
W
18 Oct · NWSL Women
2-2
D
04 Oct · NWSL Women
2-4
L
27 Sep · NWSL Women
1-1
D
19 Sep · NWSL Women
1-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Sep 26 · NWSL Women
Portland Thorns… 1-2 Washington Spir…
14 Mar 26 · NWSL Women
Washington Spir… 0-1 Portland Thorns…
03 Aug 25 · NWSL Women
Washington Spir… 2-1 Portland Thorns…
16 Jun 25 · NWSL Women
Portland Thorns… 2-0 Washington Spir…
07 Sep 24 · NWSL Women
Washington Spir… 2-1 Portland Thorns…
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