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Al Ahly vs El Seka El Hadid

Sat 07 Nov 20:00 0 minutes final 3–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 86.2%
book 1.24x · short <1.30x
why
• league WATCH (50.0%, n=8)
• type ledger 79% (n=2290)
• short price 1.24x
• league label WATCH - realized 52% on graded picks, never RECOMMENDED
league track
watch · 50.0% of 8 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 21.5%)
draws 13.3% of matches
team history 14/1 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2290, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.4% (n=308)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
86.2%
Either team wins
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (86.2%)
@ 07 Nov 18:03 · 1.24x
board also had Home or Draw 94.5% pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
80.7%
Draw
13.8%
Away win
5.5%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:03
scoring fit λ 2.46 / μ 0.49
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
5.6%
18.0x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
Draw
13.8%
7.26x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
top Home win
80.7%
1.24x 43.2% n=243 solid won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Al Ahly 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Al Ahly 2.67 ppg vs El Seka El … 0.0 ppg
Al Ahly · last 6
07 Nov · Cup 3-0 W
02 Nov · League Cup 1-0 W
29 Oct · Premier League 0-1 W
24 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup 4-0 W
21 Oct · Premier League 3-3 D
17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup 1-2 W
El Seka El Hadid · last 6
07 Nov · Cup 3-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Cup Al Ahly 3-0 El Seka El Hadid