HOME
Cup

Zamalek SC vs Misr Insurance

Fri 06 Nov 20:00 0 minutes final 3–2 · settled
Mi
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 93.8%
why
• league WATCH (50.0%, n=8)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
watch · 50.0% of 8 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 21.5%)
draws 13.3% of matches
team history 14/1 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.3% (n=1151)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.8%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
33.4%
Draw
29.9%
Away win
36.7%
calibrated 06 Nov 18:11
scoring fit λ 1.02 / μ 1.08
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 08 Nov · 243 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
36.7%
2.73x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
Draw
29.9%
3.34x 43.2% n=243 risky lost
Home win
33.4%
3.0x 43.2% n=243 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Zamalek SC 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Zamalek SC 2.5 ppg vs Misr Insura… 0.0 ppg
Zamalek SC · last 6
06 Nov · Cup 3-2 W
02 Nov · League Cup 1-0 L
28 Oct · Premier League 2-1 W
24 Oct · CAF Champions League 1-0 W
20 Oct · Premier League 0-1 W
16 Oct · CAF Champions League 0-1 W
Misr Insurance · last 6
06 Nov · Cup 3-2 L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Cup Zamalek SC 3-2 Misr Insurance