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U. De Deportes Women vs Fbc Melgar Women

Today 22:00 17 hours, 18 minutes
Fb
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 1.5 goals · 91.6%
why
• league NEW (66.7%, n=3)
• type ledger 69% (n=403)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 66.7% of 3 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 20.8%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 23/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O1.5: 69.5% hit (n=403, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.8% (n=242)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.6%
Over 1.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
79.8%
Draw
9.9%
Away win
10.3%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 3.19 / μ 1.07
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
10.3%
9.69x – risky
Draw
9.9%
10.09x – risky
top Home win
79.8%
1.25x – solid
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — U. De Deporte… 1W / 0D / 1L · momentum U. De Depor… 1.0 ppg vs Fbc Melgar … 2.5 ppg
U. De Deportes Women · last 6
01 Nov · Liga Women 3-0 L
22 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadores… 4-2 L
19 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadores… 4-2 L
16 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadores… 0-1 L
26 Sep · Liga Women 2-5 W
19 Sep · Liga Women 4-0 W
Fbc Melgar Women · last 6
01 Nov · Liga Women 3-0 W
24 Oct · Liga Women 8-0 W
27 Sep · Liga Women 1-0 L
18 Sep · Liga Women 2-1 W
11 Sep · Liga Women 1-5 W
04 Sep · Liga Women 1-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
01 Nov 26 · Liga Women Fbc Melgar Women 3-0 U. De Deportes …
15 Aug 26 · Liga Women U. De Deportes … 2-0 Fbc Melgar Women