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Copa Fares Lopes
Ceará II vs Uniclinic Atlético Clube
Tomorrow 20:00 1 day, 15 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.4%
why
• league NEW (100.0%, n=5)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 100.0% of 5 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.6%)
draws 21.6% of matches
team history 1/2 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.4%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.6%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
24.7%
calibrated 11 Nov 03:06
scoring fit λ 1.75 / μ 1.14
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
24.7%
|
4.05x | – | risky |
| Draw |
23.7%
|
4.22x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
51.6%
|
1.94x | – | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Ceará II 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Ceará II 1.0 ppg vs Uniclinic A… 0.67 ppg
Ceará II · last 6
10 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes
2-1
L
29 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes
1-2
L
17 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes
2-1
W
05 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes
2-0
L
01 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes
0-1
W
24 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes
3-1
L
Uniclinic Atlético Clube · last 6
02 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes
0-2
L
22 May · Cearense - 2
1-4
W
14 May · Cearense - 2
1-1
D
29 Apr · Cearense - 2
0-2
L
22 Apr · Cearense - 2
1-0
L
15 Apr · Cearense - 2
2-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
09 Nov 24 · Copa Fares Lopes
Ceará II 2-2 Uniclinic Atlét…