HOME
Copa Fares Lopes
Guaraní de Juazeiro vs Quixada
Tomorrow 22:00 1 day, 13 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.8%
why
• league NEW (100.0%, n=4)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 100.0% of 4 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 51.0%)
draws 22.9% of matches
team history 3/1 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
40.6%
Draw
25.4%
Away win
34.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 1.46 / μ 1.32
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
34.0%
|
2.94x | – | risky |
| Draw |
25.4%
|
3.94x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
40.6%
|
2.46x | – | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Guaraní de … 1.67 ppg vs Quixada 0.5 ppg
Guaraní de Juazeiro · last 6
07 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes
4-0
L
17 May · Cearense - 2
1-2
W
14 May · Cearense - 2
2-1
L
10 May · Cearense - 2
2-1
W
26 Apr · Cearense - 2
1-1
D
19 Apr · Cearense - 2
0-1
W
Quixada · last 6
01 Nov · Copa Fares Lopes
0-5
L
10 Feb · Cearense - 1
1-3
L
05 Feb · Cearense - 1
2-3
W
30 Jan · Cearense - 1
0-1
L
23 Jan · Cearense - 1
1-2
L
16 Jan · Cearense - 1
4-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.