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Primera C
Canuelas vs Central Córdoba
Sun 08 Nov 20:00 0 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 92.1%
why
• league OK (65.8%, n=79)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 65.8% of 79 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 54.8%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 24/24 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.8% (n=1085)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.1%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
38.0%
Draw
36.3%
Away win
25.7%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.22 / μ 0.97
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 476 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
25.7%
|
3.9x | 39.5% n=476 | risky |
| Draw |
36.3%
|
2.75x | 39.5% n=476 | risky |
| top Home win |
38.1%
|
2.63x | 39.5% n=476 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Canuelas 0W / 3D / 0L
· momentum Canuelas 2.33 ppg vs Central Cór… 1.67 ppg
Canuelas · last 6
31 Oct · Primera C
1-1
D
24 Oct · Primera C
1-0
W
19 Oct · Primera C
0-1
W
12 Oct · Primera C
4-0
W
05 Oct · Primera C
1-1
D
27 Sep · Primera C
2-1
W
Central Córdoba · last 6
31 Oct · Primera C
1-1
D
24 Oct · Primera C
2-1
L
17 Oct · Primera C
1-0
W
12 Oct · Primera C
1-0
L
04 Oct · Primera C
1-0
W
26 Sep · Primera C
2-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
31 Oct 26 · Primera C
Central Córdoba 1-1 Canuelas
05 Jul 26 · Primera C
Canuelas 0-0 Central Córdoba
04 Mar 26 · Primera C
Central Córdoba 1-1 Canuelas