Le
HOME
Primera C
Leones De Rosario vs Sportivo Barracas
Sun 08 Nov 20:00 0 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.9%
why
• league OK (65.8%, n=79)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 65.8% of 79 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 54.8%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 24/24 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.9%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
39.4%
Draw
34.3%
Away win
26.3%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.27 / μ 1.00
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 476 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
26.3%
|
3.81x | 39.5% n=476 | risky |
| Draw |
34.3%
|
2.91x | 39.5% n=476 | risky |
| top Home win |
39.4%
|
2.54x | 39.5% n=476 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Leones De Ros… 2W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Leones De R… 1.5 ppg vs Sportivo Ba… 1.17 ppg
Leones De Rosario · last 6
02 Nov · Primera C
4-1
L
24 Oct · Primera C
1-0
W
17 Oct · Primera C
2-1
L
12 Oct · Primera C
2-1
W
05 Oct · Primera C
0-2
W
28 Sep · Primera C
0-1
L
Sportivo Barracas · last 6
02 Nov · Primera C
4-1
W
24 Oct · Primera C
1-1
D
19 Oct · Primera C
0-0
D
12 Oct · Primera C
0-0
D
05 Oct · Primera C
0-2
L
27 Sep · Primera C
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
02 Nov 26 · Primera C
Sportivo Barrac… 4-1 Leones De Rosar…
05 Oct 26 · Primera C
Sportivo Barrac… 0-2 Leones De Rosar…
06 Jun 26 · Primera C
Leones De Rosar… 2-0 Sportivo Barrac…