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Premier League
Ulaanbaatar vs Hunters
Fri 13 Nov 07:00 1 day, 6 hoursHu
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 91.4%
why
• league PROVEN (81.2%, n=16)
• type ledger 79% (n=2310)
league track
proven · 81.2% of 16 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.0%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 25/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2310, 90d ledger)
measured band: 86.9% (n=61)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 75.6% hit (n=389)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
91.4%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (91.4%)
@ 11 Nov 23:59
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
64.7%
Draw
8.6%
Away win
26.6%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:59
scoring fit λ 3.01 / μ 1.89
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
26.6%
|
3.75x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
| Draw |
8.6%
|
11.58x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
| top Home win |
64.7%
|
1.54x | 67.7% n=31 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 7 meetings — Ulaanbaatar 6W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Ulaanbaatar 2.5 ppg vs Hunters 1.0 ppg
Ulaanbaatar · last 6
10 Nov · Premier League
4-1
L
06 Nov · Premier League
3-2
W
02 Nov · Premier League
1-9
W
29 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
25 Oct · Premier League
0-1
W
18 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
Hunters · last 6
10 Nov · Premier League
3-2
L
06 Nov · Premier League
2-1
W
02 Nov · Premier League
1-9
L
29 Oct · Premier League
1-7
L
25 Oct · Premier League
2-0
L
18 Oct · Premier League
5-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
02 Nov 26 · Premier League
Hunters 1-9 Ulaanbaatar
27 Sep 26 · Premier League
Ulaanbaatar 5-3 Hunters
20 May 26 · Premier League
Hunters 1-4 Ulaanbaatar
18 Oct 25 · Premier League
Ulaanbaatar 4-0 Hunters
23 Jun 25 · Premier League
Hunters 2-4 Ulaanbaatar
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