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Premier League
Deren vs Tuv Azarganuud
Fri 13 Nov 10:00 1 day, 9 hoursTu
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 89.0%
why
• league PROVEN (81.2%, n=16)
• type ledger 79% (n=2310)
league track
proven · 81.2% of 16 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.0%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 24/25 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2310, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.6% (n=311)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 75.6% hit (n=389)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
89.0%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (89.0%)
@ 11 Nov 23:59
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
47.6%
Draw
11.0%
Away win
41.4%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:59
scoring fit λ 2.06 / μ 1.90
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
41.4%
|
2.42x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
| Draw |
11.0%
|
9.07x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
| top Home win |
47.6%
|
2.1x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Deren 5W / 2D / 5L
· momentum Deren 1.67 ppg vs Tuv Azargan… 1.17 ppg
Deren · last 6
10 Nov · Premier League
4-1
W
06 Nov · Premier League
2-1
L
02 Nov · Premier League
3-3
D
29 Oct · Premier League
1-0
L
25 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
14 Oct · Premier League
5-0
W
Tuv Azarganuud · last 6
10 Nov · Premier League
3-2
W
06 Nov · Premier League
3-2
L
02 Nov · Premier League
3-3
D
29 Oct · Premier League
1-7
W
25 Oct · Premier League
0-1
L
18 Oct · Premier League
2-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
02 Nov 26 · Premier League
Tuv Azarganuud 3-3 Deren
11 Oct 26 · Premier League
Tuv Azarganuud 2-1 Deren
03 Jul 26 · Premier League
Tuv Azarganuud 0-3 Deren
24 Jun 26 · Premier League
Deren 2-0 Tuv Azarganuud
14 Jun 26 · Premier League
Deren 1-2 Tuv Azarganuud
Tickets including this match