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Premier League
Deren vs Ulaanbaatar
Tomorrow 10:00 1 day, 5 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 88.2%
why
• league OK (58.3%, n=12)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
league track
ok · 58.3% of 12 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 32.0%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 23/24 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.9% (n=303)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=383)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
88.2%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (88.2%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
31.9%
Draw
11.8%
Away win
56.4%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.70 / μ 2.35
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
56.4%
|
1.77x | 67.7% n=31 | lean |
| Draw |
11.7%
|
8.51x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
| Home win |
31.9%
|
3.14x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Deren 3W / 3D / 6L
· momentum Deren 1.17 ppg vs Ulaanbaatar 3.0 ppg
Deren · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
2-1
L
02 Nov · Premier League
3-3
D
29 Oct · Premier League
1-0
L
25 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
14 Oct · Premier League
5-0
W
11 Oct · Premier League
2-1
L
Ulaanbaatar · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
3-2
W
02 Nov · Premier League
1-9
W
29 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
25 Oct · Premier League
0-1
W
18 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
14 Oct · Premier League
8-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
29 Oct 26 · Premier League
Ulaanbaatar 1-0 Deren
17 Sep 26 · Premier League
Deren 0-0 Ulaanbaatar
06 Jul 26 · Premier League
Ulaanbaatar 2-3 Deren
27 Jun 26 · Premier League
Deren 0-2 Ulaanbaatar
23 May 26 · Premier League
Ulaanbaatar 2-0 Deren