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Premier League
Erchim vs Khovd Western
Today 07:00 3 hours, 36 minutesKh
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 88.5%
why
• league OK (58.3%, n=12)
• type ledger 75% (n=2254)
league track
ok · 58.3% of 12 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 32.0%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 11/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2254, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.9% (n=303)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.3% hit (n=382)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
88.5%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (88.5%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
36.2%
Draw
11.5%
Away win
52.3%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.97 / μ 2.41
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
52.3%
|
1.91x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
| Draw |
11.5%
|
8.7x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
| Home win |
36.2%
|
2.76x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Erchim 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Erchim 1.0 ppg vs Khovd Weste… 1.5 ppg
Erchim · last 6
05 Nov · Premier League
2-0
L
28 Oct · Premier League
5-1
W
24 Oct · Premier League
3-4
W
18 Oct · Premier League
5-1
L
14 Oct · Premier League
5-0
L
11 Oct · Premier League
1-3
L
Khovd Western · last 6
05 Nov · Premier League
3-0
W
01 Nov · Premier League
0-3
W
24 Oct · Premier League
1-3
L
19 Oct · Premier League
2-3
W
14 Oct · Premier League
8-0
L
10 Oct · Premier League
2-6
L
Head-to-head last 5
21 Sep 26 · Premier League
Khovd Western 2-3 Erchim