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Premier League
Ulaanbaatar vs Tuv Azarganuud
Fri 06 Nov 07:00 0 minutes final 3–2 · 1 won · 0 lostTu
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 89.2%
why
• league OK (64.3%, n=14)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
league track
ok · 64.3% of 14 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 38.8%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 24/24 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.0% (n=305)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=385)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
89.2%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (89.2%)
@ 06 Nov 04:02
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
54.3%
Draw
10.8%
Away win
34.9%
calibrated 06 Nov 04:02
scoring fit λ 2.31 / μ 1.79
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
34.9%
|
2.87x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
10.8%
|
9.24x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
54.3%
|
1.84x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Ulaanbaatar 7W / 1D / 5L
· momentum Ulaanbaatar 3.0 ppg vs Tuv Azargan… 1.17 ppg
Ulaanbaatar · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
3-2
W
02 Nov · Premier League
1-9
W
29 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
25 Oct · Premier League
0-1
W
18 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
14 Oct · Premier League
8-0
W
Tuv Azarganuud · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
3-2
L
02 Nov · Premier League
3-3
D
29 Oct · Premier League
1-7
W
25 Oct · Premier League
0-1
L
18 Oct · Premier League
2-0
L
11 Oct · Premier League
2-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Premier League
Ulaanbaatar 3-2 Tuv Azarganuud
25 Oct 26 · Premier League
Tuv Azarganuud 0-1 Ulaanbaatar
18 Oct 26 · Premier League
Ulaanbaatar 2-0 Tuv Azarganuud
30 Jun 26 · Premier League
Ulaanbaatar 2-3 Tuv Azarganuud
21 Jun 26 · Premier League
Tuv Azarganuud 0-3 Ulaanbaatar