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Premier League
Hunters vs Deren
Fri 06 Nov 10:00 0 minutes final 2–1 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 85.2%
why
• league PROVEN (81.2%, n=16)
• type ledger 75% (n=659)
league track
proven · 81.2% of 16 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.0%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 21/24 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 74.8% hit (n=659, 90d ledger)
measured band: 82.8% (n=87)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 75.6% hit (n=389)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
85.2%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away
solid (85.2%)
@ 06 Nov 09:40
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
14.8%
Draw
17.1%
Away win
68.1%
calibrated 06 Nov 09:40
scoring fit λ 1.56 / μ 3.16
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
68.1%
|
1.47x | 67.7% n=31 | lean | lost |
| Draw |
17.1%
|
5.85x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
14.8%
|
6.75x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 8 meetings — Hunters 1W / 1D / 6L
· momentum Hunters 1.0 ppg vs Deren 1.67 ppg
Hunters · last 6
10 Nov · Premier League
3-2
L
06 Nov · Premier League
2-1
W
02 Nov · Premier League
1-9
L
29 Oct · Premier League
1-7
L
25 Oct · Premier League
2-0
L
18 Oct · Premier League
5-1
W
Deren · last 6
10 Nov · Premier League
4-1
W
06 Nov · Premier League
2-1
L
02 Nov · Premier League
3-3
D
29 Oct · Premier League
1-0
L
25 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
14 Oct · Premier League
5-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Premier League
Hunters 2-1 Deren
25 Oct 26 · Premier League
Deren 2-0 Hunters
12 Sep 26 · Premier League
Hunters 1-2 Deren
17 May 26 · Premier League
Deren 1-1 Hunters
14 Oct 25 · Premier League
Hunters 0-1 Deren