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Premier League
Amtat Fc vs Erchim
Thu 05 Nov 10:00 0 minutes final 2–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 88.3%
why
• league OK (64.3%, n=14)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
league track
ok · 64.3% of 14 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 38.8%)
draws 6.7% of matches
team history 12/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.0% (n=305)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=385)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
88.3%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (88.3%)
@ 05 Nov 03:25
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
35.3%
Draw
11.7%
Away win
53.0%
calibrated 05 Nov 03:25
scoring fit λ 2.23 / μ 2.74
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
53.0%
|
1.89x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
11.7%
|
8.55x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
35.3%
|
2.83x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Amtat Fc 2W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Amtat Fc 2.17 ppg vs Erchim 1.0 ppg
Amtat Fc · last 6
05 Nov · Premier League
2-0
W
01 Nov · Premier League
1-1
D
28 Oct · Premier League
5-3
W
24 Oct · Premier League
1-3
W
19 Oct · Premier League
2-3
L
15 Oct · Premier League
4-2
W
Erchim · last 6
09 Nov · Premier League
0-3
L
05 Nov · Premier League
2-0
L
28 Oct · Premier League
5-1
W
24 Oct · Premier League
3-4
W
18 Oct · Premier League
5-1
L
14 Oct · Premier League
5-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · Premier League
Amtat Fc 2-0 Erchim
16 Sep 26 · Premier League
Erchim 1-2 Amtat Fc